Water Astra ArisannaTier 2
at 貓腳印東門店 店家冠軍賽
decks
1
(2.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.3%
avg ELO -7.9 per match
expected value
41.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1068
· median 1068
· range 1068–1068
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
988
Q1 1232
Q3 1443
1543
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Water Genbu | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Zander | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Astra Arisanna decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
